It’s homecoming at the University of Illinois and electricity is in the air, as Brett Bielema and his 5-1 Illinois Fighting Illini are looking to extend that win streak to a bowl game worthy six wins, in mid October. The Illini are coming off a thrilling 9-6 win in Memorial stadium over the Iowa Hawkeyes, where a rowdy 45,000 fans helped lead the Illini to victory. That crowd is expected to be even larger for this week’s Homecoming Game, after the Illini Athletic Department announced a 24 hour flash sale of $24 tickets. This sale was to represent your AP #24 ranked Illini of course for the first time since 2011.
Know the Enemy
The Illini face off against Illinois native PJ Fleck, and the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who lost to the Illini 14-6 a short season ago. Much like the Illini, the Gophers have come a long way since that game. Minnesota currently sits at 4-1 on the season, with wins over Michigan State, Colorado, Western Illinois, and New Mexico State. Through I wouldn’t say it’s a very gleaming win category for the Gophers, business was taken care of in games the Gophers needed to win. The Gophers have out scored all opponents this season 193-44, and their only loss comes at the hands of a good Purdue team, while also missing Star RB Mo Ibrahim. According to ESPN.com, Minnesota has the 13th ranked offense in the nation, and the best offense in the Big Ten west. A tough matchup for Ryan Walters and the Illinois Defense, but the kind of matchup that can really show their stuff. As stated before, Minnesota’s 4-1 record isn’t necessarily perfect. The Gophers 4 wins combined only account for 3 wins on the season. Not a very impressive stat, but again, they won, didn’t they? Good teams, and well coached teams take care of business against lesser opponents, and jump on mistakes, which the Gophers have taking full advantage of this season.
Gophers RB Mo Ibrahim is the Star of the Gophers offense and will be key to Minnesota getting it done against the Illini, who’s defense has been brutal to opponents for the first 6 games. Ibrahim currently has 578 yards rushing on 89 rushes and 8 TD’s this season, and that’s after being ruled out prior to the Gophers 20-10 loss to Purdue. It’s obvious that when Mo is not in the game, or not a factor, the Minnesota offense really struggles, as I’m sure Illinois would without Chayse Brown. The key for Minnesota will be, If Mo Ibrahim gives you a good game after some time off, to heal. This can create some rust for a player and make it more difficult for them to have that type of breakout game, much like an early season performance. I would guess however, that Mo will be ready to rock and roll On Saturday, in what is the biggest Game of the season so far for both opponents.
The Minnesota Defense is yet another powerful force in the Big Ten West that has asserted themselves so far this season. According to ESPN.com Minnesota has the top defense in college football through 6 games, despite the competition thus far being a little underwhelming. They have held all
opponents to a combined 1110 yards of total offense, averaging 222 total yards given up per game all season. Very similar numbers to the Illini defensively, and you can assure yourself this will be another low scoring game, similar to what we saw last week vs the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Keys to Winning
Art improvement. With starting QB Tommy Devito still questionable for Saturday’s matchup vs Minnesota, backup QB Art Sitkowski will have to take a big step forward in preparation to get his offense on the same page as him. Art was not ready at first to be hoisted into a Big Ten matchup vs Iowa last week, and the first couple of drives the offense took made that apparent. However, as the game continued and Barry Lunney Jr’s playbook was molded to Art’s play style, Sitkowski and the Illinois offense started to move the ball well, and did enough to get the job done. Will one week of prep for both Art and Barry be enough to get those offense rolling well today without Devito.
Steady dose of Chayse. If consistently getting it done through the air is not going to be feasible for Art, Illinois will have to really rely on RB Chayse Brown to do a lot of heavy lifting on his shoulders. However, if Browns streak of 100+ yard games continue, and he pulls off let’s say 130 yards and a TD against Minnesota, it will be massive for Illinois to have that to lean on.
The Fire Department. The Illinois defense has been dubbed as the “Fire Dept.” by HC Bret Bielema, for the number of times the Illinois Defense has stepped up in tough situation and got the job done, as elite defenses do. This will have to be one of those weeks again. You would obviously love to keep them home no touchdown streak alive, but thinking realistically, if you can hold Minnesota under 21 points, you are going to have a good shot to win this game. This ensures you are not asking too much out of Art Sitkowski, or possibly a shaken-up Tommy DeVito, Chayse Brown and the Illinois offense.
Kirkland’s Prediction
This is a prediction I have struggled with back-and-forth. Minnesotas stellar defenses and high-power offense will be a lot to handle Saturday, especially if you are missing your starting QB. However, the Illini Defense is good enough to hold this to a low scoring game, which gives the Illini a good chance to capitalize much like last week. I have a feeling that Minnesota’s offense is going to have some trouble getting going against Illinois, because Ibrahim will be fresh off an injury, and that this will be the best defense the Gophers have faced by far. I am also not entirely sold on the wins Minnesota has so far this season either, with all 4 teams combining for a total of 3 wins.
I’m going to take the Illini over the Gophers, 20-17 in a nail-biter, that will come down to which defense can hold strong as the longest. I think a very large crowd at Memorial Stadium will make it tough on the Gophers, and the Illini will walk away with a Homecoming victory.
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