It’s Homecoming week in Champaign, IL and Bret Bielema’s squad is looking to spark two season-changing wins in a row in week 8, after defeating Taulia Tugovailoa and the Maryland Terrapins in College Park, 27-24.
Luke Fickell and the Wisconsin Badgers come to town 4-2 after a wide turn of events in Madison, as the Badgers find themselves down their star Quarterback Tanner Mordecai to a broken hand, and Running Back Chez Mellusi to a broken Fibula. Of course, there is plenty of talent to go around in the Badger locker room, but certainly we saw this combo of injuries take effect in Wisconsin’s 15-6 loss to Iowa.
The Illini and Badgers Kickoff at 2:30 pm on FS1 in Champaign, as the Illini seek to even the odds at 4-4 on the season, and go on a little run to round out 2023.
BREAKDOWN
Luke Fickell’s “Air-raid” offense is new in Madison, but the Badgers had taken to it well in their 4-1 start. That is, until star QB Tanner Mordecai broke his throwing hand last week vs Iowa.
Brayden Locke is set to start his first collegiate football game here in Champaign, on the road, after having a tough role filling in for Mordecai in Wisconsin’s Loss to Iowa last week. Locke went 15-30 and due to the scenario, didn’t seem to be able to be able to get himself comfortable as the leader of the Wisconsin offense. Who really would be, in their first time being asked to step up for a Big Ten program vs a killer Iowa defense. However, this matchup vs the Illini defense is going to make or break the outcome of this game. If you are Aaron Henry’s Illini defense, you cannot let a young, brand new quarterback have a breakout game against you on homecoming. The Illini defense has held strong for the last two weeks, and has played more to the potential we thought this young, but talented defense could have. However, Illinois has a history of letting teams/players have breakout games to get momentum rolling against them, and you cannot let Locke be one of them. If Illinois defensive line is on point, and Newton, Coleman and company can put the pressure on the young QB, it may be a fun homecoming in Champaign.
Braelon Allen is a tough running back for Wisconsin, and has to carry a massive load with Mellusi out for the remainder of 2023 with a broken Fibula. Allen had 559 yards on the season, on 91 carry attempts. Allen will be a more heavily utilized target on Saturday, as Brayden Locke continues to try to get comfortable on the field. Allen will want to have a big game vs the Illini after only being able to gain 2 yards total on Illinois defense in the 2023 bashing of the Badgers in Madison.
The Wiscy defense is very good, and will be a hard matchup for Luke Altmyer, who needs to have a solid outing vs Wisconsin. The Badger front 7 brings a ton on pressure, and will do a lot of stunting at the line, combined with blitzing to try and create some havoc for Altmyer and the young Illini interior OL.
Former Wisconsin DC Jim Leonard departed from Wisconsin in 2022, and is now an analyst staffer for the Illini. Since his departure, the defensive culture has held strong in Madison allowing 21 ppg on average in 2023. If Illinois can crack 21+ vs the Badgers, they are going to have a great shot, unless Brayden Locke has a monster of a breakout game for the Badger offense.
PREDICTION
Illinois has been a hard team to put a finger on in 2023, and predicting which Illini team will show up on Saturday afternoon is… tough.
A talented, yet young group can win, or fold, and it seems the Illini are not looking to throw in the “2023 hopes” towel yet. The Maryland win was a big one, and momentum has certainly shifted in the right direction in some capacity. With Wisconsin missing 2 of their big weapons, and a new face in the QB room in Locke, Wisconsin is certainly going to have their struggles to get things going on offense. It’s homecoming, and big things happen on big day’s, when good vibes are in the air. I think the Illini take the circumstances and run with it.
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