The stage is set for the 2023 college football season, and Illini nation is anxiously awaiting Kickoff in Memorial Stadium vs the 2022 Midwest Athletic Conference champions, the Toledo Rockets. Illinois Head Coach Bret Bielema has been providing media updates weekly, and in his Friday presser (8/25) Coach Bielema gave the indication that they would be beginning game prep for Toledo, as they came to the conclusion of fall camp. The Illini kickoff against the reigning MAC champions at 6:30pm Saturday night on the Big Ten Network.
Toledo is led by Head Coach Jason Candle, who is entering his 8th season in Northern Ohio. The Rockets have twice been MAC champions under Candle. Once in 2017, the second in 2022, and now, Candle and his squad are hunting a third in 2023. Candle has also made it to a bowl game 6 of his 8 years in Toledo, despite a 2-4 record in the post-season. This includes last years 21-19 win over the Liberty Flames in the Boca Raton Bowl, and a 9-5 conference championship season. Illinois definitely has their work cut out for them, despite facing a non power-5 opponent to kickoff the season.
OFFENSE
The Rockets return a large part of their offensive production from 2022, which is good news for Coach Candle, as this unit finished 2nd in the MAC in scoring, securing a conference title, as well as a Bowl Game.
The Rockets offense is led by Junior QB Dequan Finn, a dangerous Dual-Threat QB who is just as dangerous with his arm, as with his legs. Finn threw for over 2,260 yards, and scored 23 touchdowns through the air in 2022, as well as rushing for 9 touchdowns. The kid has killer talent, and is a fantastic test for Aaron Henry’s Defense early. A unit that would benefit from some early pressure, as they bring on a new Defensive Coordinator in Henry, as well as new position coaches, and a DB unit that lost 3 legit NFL starters to the Draft.
The Rockets Offensive Line returns 4 starters from last years championship team, and is positioned to have a great unit, barring injury of course, which was a major problem for this unit in 2022. 6th year Junior Nick Rosi leads the way of this unit, and is a 2-time all MAC selection. Illinois defensive Line, led by Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph is expected to be one of, if not the best starting defensive lines in the nation, and is going to be a whale of a task for this Toledo OL. However, experience can be a monster. This is a position battle Illinois needs to win early, and often, and getting to Finn is going to be a major key to handling this game the way Illinois should. If Finn never gets fully comfortable in the pocket, and is forced to make uncomfortable throws, the Illini defense is going to take a lot of pressure off of their young, talented DB’s, and make big, game-altering plays.
The passing game for Toledo was stellar in 2022, and the receiving core was a massive part of this teams road to glory a short season ago. The unit is led by second-team all MAC Junior Jerjuan Newton, who led the way for Toledo with 53 receptions, 830 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns. Junior TE Anthony Torres and talented Sophomore TE Lenny Kuhl were heavily utilized targets in 2022, and will be a major test matchup watch as well, with some new faces in the linebacker unit for the Illini.
The RB room is led by Junior RB Jacquez Stuart, who rushed for 770 yards in 2022, and is looking to have an breakout season in 2023. Stuart finished 4th in the MAC a season ago, despite being a team that was so heavily reliant on its passing game. This goes to show how good and efficient of a runner Stuart can be when given the opportunity to tote the rock. After graduating a lot of experience out of the wide receiver room in 2022, and returning 4 starters on a good offensive line, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Stuart more heavily utilized in the Toledo Offense in 2023.
DEFENSE
Toledo had one of the best defenses in the MAC in 2022, and and also return a bulk of talent to the 2023 unit. The Rockets linebacker room returns first-team All-MAC selection Dallas Grant, who led the Toledo defense with 116 total tackles in 2022. However, Jackson Barrow will then be Toledo’s next most experienced LB, with only 2 starts in 2022, and expected to be the 2nd of 3 starters in the LB room for Toledo. Grant will have to have to carry a major load as Toledo continues to find its other 2 solid starters, and will have to get them used to game speed vs a Big Ten opponent. A big bite to chew for the Rockets defense in the face of Big Ten team that was one game shy of a conference title game appearance themselves a season ago.
DB Quinyon Mitchell is the star of the secondary unit, and was voted 2nd team Walter Camp All-American, as well as 3rd team Associated Press All-American. Mitchell led all secondary players at Toledo with 20 pass breakups in 2022, and five interceptions to boot. Two of which came in the form of pick-sixes vs NIU. However, the talent does not stop there in this deep secondary unit. Maxen Hook, a first team All-MAC selection safety, led the Rockets secondary in tackles in 2022 with 81 tackles, and 5 pass breakups. A talented, powerful player, who loves to hit and will make you pay throwing into the middle of the field. Senior DB Zach Ford also out his stamp on this powerful unit, with 58 tackles and 6 pass breakups for his defense in 22′.
The Defensive Line is led by senior DT Judge Culpepper. Culpepper has started 27 games over the last 2 seasons, and has recorded 87 tackled for the Rockets in his time, definitely making him Toledo’s most experienced player on this front. Of all the positions on Jason Candles defense, I believe this is the position that lacks the most depth and talent, and you can hope that Illinois Offensive Line will be able to take advantage, and open up big holes for the Illini run game. This could be major growing game for Josh McCray and Reggie Love III, who will both be looking to have breakout seasons in 2023.
BREAKDOWN
Toledo is no candy cane start to a season, and I believe that the game is going to be a little closer than what some Illinois fans would anticipate when facing a non-power 5 team to kickoff the season. Truthfully, its exactly the game Illinois needs to start with. Illinois has what many believe to be another really good Big Ten Team in 2023, and in the conversation once again for their first Big Ten Championship game appearance since the conference title was added in 2011. However, Illinois biggest question marks are a young, talented secondary, with a lot to prove, as well as a quarterback situation in Luke Altmyer who seemingly, is very good, but only time will tell.
With a talented passing attack from Toledo that will keep Illinois secondary on its toes early and often, the Illini will be able to get some really good experience for Demetrius Hill, Clayton Bush, Xavier Scott, and others as they fill the void of Matt Bailey to Injury. Not to mention the loss of 3 talented teammates to the NFL draft top 75.
Luke Altmyer will be expected to have some rust to shake off as this will be his first season really taking control as a starting QB in college football. However, facing an inexperienced LB unit as a whole, and a DL unit that will will be the weakest on this team, I believe Altmyer will be able to get this offense into rhythm, and roll. The Illinois Offensive Line should have a major effect in this one, and will hope to help Luke settled into position
PREDICTION
Illinois- 41 Toledo- 20
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