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The Fighting Illini pulled out a close 27-26 win vs PJ Fleck’s Minnesota in Minneapolis, and are looking more and more like the tough, gritty team this staff had raved about for all of preseason.
Ball State transfer QB John Paddock stepped up for Luke Altmyer during a late game injury in the 4th quarter, and delivered a dime to Isaiah Williams to finish out a massive win for the Illini to keep bowl game hopes alive in 2023. The definition of next man up.
Next up on that hunt for 6 wins, is Tom Allen’s 3-6 Indiana Hoosiers, who themselves are having a more improved 2nd half of the season. The Hoosiers in a shock took down Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin Badgers last week, and played tough with the #10 ranked Penn State Nittany lions in week 7.
However, despite the Hoosiers victory vs the Badgers in week 9, Illinois is still favored vs Indiana by several outlets, including a ILL -6.5 line by ESPN.
Frankly put, the Illini should get the job done, and take down a 3-6 team who’s biggest win is to date is a now mightily struggling Wisconsin Offense without Tanner Mordecai. However as the theme of the season goes, will the better Illini team show up ? Can the Illini take the pressure off and snag a big win at home?
Illinois took a huge loss to Indiana in 2022 early, which then assisted in the Illini missing out on the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2001. A big game for this Illini staff, team, and fanbase at home.
Quick Breakdown
The Hoosiers are having a ton of struggles on the offensive side of the ball, and are currently ranked as the 13th worst overall Offense in the FBS. The Hoosiers struggle to score, and currently average only 18.8 points per game. Moving the chains overall has been difficult for Tom Allen’s team, and when you add a 3rd down efficiency of 35%, the struggle is real for Indiana.
The offense is led by Quarterback Tayven Jackson, who is having his fare share of growing pains as a Freshman transfer. Jackson has a 37.4 overall QBR and has only recorded 914 yards on the season, to pair with a TD to INT ratio of 2-5.
Not a hot start.
Illinois has an opportunity to capitalize vs a struggling QB and Offense, and make some big plays on the defensive side of the ball. With Johnny Newton and Keith Randolph fully back in the rotation for Aaron Henry’s defense, the Illini should be “Full go Rodeo” as Bret Bielema like to put it.
The Hoosiers Defense is better, and is most certainly the overall strength of this Hoosiers squad. However, Matt Guerreri’s defense is certainly not invincible, as the Hoosiers still find themselves giving up 361 ppg on average. A solid defense overall, and one that can make you pay if you are not playing clean, efficient football.
Ask our friendly neighbors to the north…
The big question is, who will be in the backfield for the Illini to face this Indiana Defense? Kaden Feagin was struggling with some health issues towards the end of the Minnesota game at times, but seems to be a go vs the Hoosiers. You can never be 100% certain with this staff however. If Feagin is a go vs the Hoosiers, and is feeling himself, the Illini could really have themselves a game.
Prediction
This is a game Illinois should/needs to win, and can be a big step forward towards snagging that sweet, 6th bowl game clenching victory. A big game at home, and winning big home games has been an issue for the Illini this season. That should end Saturday, and the Illini should take care of business.
Illinois 34- Indiana 20
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